Since March 13, 2020, the United States (U.S.) has been in a State of National Emergency due to COVID-19, which, two days earlier was officially declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). This novel virus has led to international travel restrictions, the cancelation of numerous sporting, entertainment, religious, and community events across the globe, as well as the quarantine and social isolation of over a billion people across a majority of the world’s countries. Addressing COVID-19 will require concerted effort from government at all levels, the private sector, as well as the public.
Based on our Health Risk Index, developed with support from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), aiding emergency response efforts, we have developed both a COVID-19 Transmission Risk Index to predict the location of future outbreaks, as well as a Mortality Risk Index to identify the regions with the highest risk of critical illness and death due to the virus – each at the County, ZIP Code, and Census tract levels.
Benefits to the Emergency Response Effort
These Indices allow Emergency Managers and Medical Responders to –
• Predict the next Hot Zones and Outbreaks of Coronavirus at the County and ZIP Codes levels in the U.S.
o Based on current cases, disease progression, mobility, and social data within our platform.
o This will enable deployment of medical resources in advance of the virus, rather than chasing the virus – aiding first responders to Save Lives. .
o Significantly improving the ability to halt the spread of the contagion and treat the infected.
• Guide eventual De-Quarantine efforts to resume economic activity in ‘safe’ or ‘low risk’ zones.
o Reducing the risk of a ‘second bump’ of Coronavirus cases as normal activity and social interaction is resumed.
o Speeding the safe resumption of normal economic activity will benefit the economy.
o Resuming normal activities will also reduce the mental health risk associated with long-term social isolation.
• Understand supply chain disruptions of medical supplies & equipment
o Provide information on on-the-ground medical facilities and resources needed for emergency response operations, such as ventilators.
o Identify in advance key supplies and equipment that may be in short supply so they can be manufactured, allocated from other areas, or other contingencies can be made.
• Anticipate downstream impact and strain on industries and the social safety net.
o Assessing downstream impacts from pandemic can ensure continuity of critical services.
o Funeral homes are an industry potentially impacted by a surge in COVID-19 fatalities.
Data Analysis at Multiple Geographic Levels
The Pandemic Risk Indices can be displayed at National (upper left) as well as the State (upper right), County (lower, left), and ZIP Code (lower, right) levels.
We are working with Maryland municipalities and the Maryland Emergency Management Agency to help stem the tide of Coronavirus and will support other agencies and states as well.
For additional information on our COVID-19 efforts, please contact Ajay Gupta at +1-240-731-0756, agupta@HSR.health.